Nick Saban is one of the greatest college football of all time. Well it be fair an honest, he’s one of the greatest coaches of all time regardless of not only football but in all of sports. He’s been dominant for years and continues to do so. Whenever we write off Alabama they come back and that’s evident this year as they lost early in the season to Texas but find themselves with only one loss. But Saban on the Pat McAfee show had an interesting quote on Analytics which left fans scratching their heads.
The irony here is this is exactly what 4th down models actually do.
It’s quite simple:
Chance of success (80% here) * Value if successful
Chance of failure (20% here) * Value if failed (“consequence”, or 3.5 points)
Then just pick the bigger number! https://t.co/v8DZU5ioWM
— Ethan Douglas (@EthanCDouglas) November 2, 2023
I mean that’s exactly what Analytics do. They give you percentages, and numbers, etc, etc. I am sure Saban knows exactly all of this but got misquoted here. However, it’s always fun to point out little quotes like this that make people like Nick Saban look like a mere mortal.