Where Michael Kopech Opting Out Leaves the White Sox

Image Credit: AP Photo/Ben Margot

After a fun couple days of parrot rides and the Yermin Mercedes experience at third base, the first major domino of summer camp fell for the White Sox.  On Friday afternoon, the team announced that starting pitcher Michael Kopech would not play in the 2020 MLB season.

This comes a week after initial stories emerged of Kopech being a no-show at camp, for reasons unbeknownst to the public.  Those reasons are still unconfirmed, as the team offered little information on that regard.  I won’t really speculate on that until Kopech himself offers a statement, if or when he does.  This is his decision, and I’ll leave it that way out of respect.

Obviously, the number one thought is that Kopech comes out of this okay.  It’s his decision, no matter what the rationale was, and it was one he thought was the right one.  On the personal side, I cannot and will not argue against that.  He’s a human first and like anyone else is going to do what is best for him and his family.  I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed as a fan to not see him back on the mound, but that’s secondary in all this.

Where his opt-out leaves the White Sox as a team, however, is a much more interesting topic as we get closer to Opening Day.  I had given my personal spin on how the White Sox could deploy the rotation a while back, but the crux of it was the following:

  • Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Dylan Cease are traditional starters
  • The remaining four guys would be paired up in an opener-early relief grouping, to maximize the talents of the openers and minimize the wear on the back-end guys:
    • Reynaldo Lopez and Carlos Rodon
    • Gio Gonzalez and Kopech

Well, that plan, however unrealistic it was the White Sox would actually use it, is now entirely out the window without Kopech.  Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

Looking at the White Sox summer camp roster, there are about 9 realistic options to start games, sans Kopech. First, the aforementioned Giolito, Keuchel, Cease, Rodon, Lopez, and Gonzalez.  If you go down the line a bit, there are some pitchers who are there for depth purposes and some who are young arms that are not quite ready, but could be in 2020 sometime.  Divide them how you may, but this group includes Ross Detwiler, Jimmy Lambert, and Dane Dunning.  I suppose if the team were in a real emergency Carson Fulmer could start games, but based on the dire straights his career is on that would be an unfavorable situation for both parties.

Of that second group, Detwiler is obviously the closest thing to a big league starter, as his 12 starts for the White Sox in 2019 would suggest.  While he was signed to be a depth piece in the rotation and is not a bad 8th-ish guy up, I don’t see him getting any regular action in 2020, barring catastrophic levels of injury. At which point, we’d have much bigger problems to discuss.

That leaves Dunning and Lambert.  Both are recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2019, and are at different stages of their development.  Lambert has never pitched above AA and only 16 games at that level, so seeing him in the big leagues in 2020 would likely be indicative of something else going wrong.

Dunning likewise has never pitched above AA, but in all likelihood would have with healthy 2018 and 2019 seasons.  His pedigree makes you think he may be a possible option down the stretch in 2020.  However, the question would then be if he is pitching in the majors, is that a good or bad thing for the 2020 team?

Beyond those two, there really isn’t anyone else on the horizon.  I’m guessing we won’t see any difference-making external options at this point.  The taxi-squad hasn’t been announced, but I’m not going to hold my breath on an option from that list making starts in the big leagues barring COVID-19 absolutely ravaging the major league roster.  Although at that point you’d have to imagine the chances we’d still be playing baseball would be low.

The other option could be to employ an opener, but the team has been hesitant to use that system up to now and I don’t see a shortened summer camp leading up to a 60 game sprint towards the playoffs as the time that hearts and minds will be changed.  Hoping the team will surprise me, but I don’t see it.

So, that leaves our current stable of six as the most likely starting options: Giolito, Keuchel, Gonzalez, Cease, Lopez, and Rodon.  In a 60 game season a true six man rotation makes no sense.  There’s no way a franchise limits this dude to 10 starts, tops.

For now I’d anticipate seeing Rodon not getting regular starts, but more coming on in long relief, being the first man up if a starter goes down, and potentially gradually replacing a struggling starter over the course of the season as he ramps up.  Obviously, earlier and more frequent use of the bullpen is also a likely option here, since rosters will be expanded early on and starters will still be ramping up to 5-6 innings.

While the exact shape of the pitching staff is unknown now, the one certain is that losing Kopech is an unfortunate development for the team, purely from a personnel standpoint.  Pitching depth was going to be a cool perk of this season, and is something the White Sox have not been able to boast for several seasons.

The future will be interesting to monitor, depending on who performs well in 2020.  If Lopez or Rodon (or someone from the lower ranks) forces the issue with an extremely strong 2020, it could leave the team with a glut of starting pitching options and no clear path for Kopech to a rotation slot in 2021.  He likely knows that risk while making this decision.  I would consider that unlikely to unfold over 2020, where he would be frozen out of the rotation and relegated to bullpen duty in 2021, but it is a possibility.

As I mentioned, I fully support his decision as a person and am looking forward to seeing what he can bring in 2021 and beyond.  Until then, here’s to hoping the rest of the staff can carry the load.

Written by Rex Hime